At CompTIA’s 2016 National State Government Affairs (SGA) and State and Local Government and Education (SLED) meeting, held November 15 to 16 in Nashville, the lunch panel included presentations from Jason Boxt, a national pollster, political strategist and executive vice president, PSB Research, and Tim Storey, director of leaders services for the National Conference of State Legislatures, who provided in-depth analysis of the 2016 election results and also shared their insights on how the recent elections will shape policy decisions in Washington, D.C., and state houses in the coming years.
Boxt shared some observations about the election:
- It was a change election for some, and they turned out. For others, this was a status quo election, and they didn’t turn out.
- The Obama coalition were not mobilized to the polls and the GOP didn’t split.
- Clinton mirrored Romney’s mistake. Romney thought Obama couldn’t repeat 2008 and Clinton thought she could replicate 2012, when she couldn’t
- Clinton didn’t get a surge of support from women
- Clinton had no message or emotional engagement with the mood of the nation, and even the greatest campaign cannot win if there is no messaging
Some of the key issues shaping the election included immigration; Wall Street and the economy; security; gender; race relations; healthcare; and the Supreme Court. Boxt said the race shifted nationally and that Clinton led among white, educated voters. Meanwhile, despite losing the popular vote, Trump won the majority of the electoral vote. The decrease in Hispanic votes and overall black voter turnout were detrimental to Clinton.
In addition, Clinton failed to increase the lead among women. That was necessary to offset Trump’s good performance among other key demographics. Trump also increased his share in the lower income voters and captured the votes of whites with no degrees. Click here to view his slides.
Storey took a look at state elections and discussed how several state legislatures have been altered. In total, there were 5,915 legislative seats up for election. Three chambers switched from Democratic to Republican control; the Kentucky House, Iowa Senate and Minnesota Senate. Four chambers switched from Republican to Democratic control including: New Mexico House; Nevada Assembly; Nevada Senate; and Washington Senate. Republicans, however, will have functional control as one Democrat will caucus with the Republicans. And one chamber will be tied; Connecticut Senate. Control in New York is still being decided. Now, Republicans control both chambers of the legislature in 32 states, Democrats control both chambers of the legislature in 13 states and three states split control. Click here to view his presentation.
What will a Trump presidency mean to the tech industry and CompTIA members? Trump vows to end H1-B visa debate and that’s not a good thing for our members! On the other hand, there’s a lot of support for skilled workers in the new administration.
