With the mid-term elections just a week away, political experts told attendees at the CompTIA Tech Summit that the leaves won’t be the only things changing this fall. Dozens of House seats in the U.S. Capitol and governorships and legislative posts in statehouses across the country are expected to flip parties. The one outlier is the U.S. Senate, where the Republicans have a more than 80 percent chance of retaining control, according to Jason Boxt, executive vice president at PSB Research.
And, what does this mean for tech?
Tech actually appears to be an industry that both sides of aisle can agree on. Boxt explained that the IT industry is trusted equally by both parties with a 63 percent trust number. Further, voters like the IT industry and think it has a bright future but only 56 percent think the industry makes society better. Republicans are more likely to say IT has too much influence and should be more closely regulated but the desire is much lower than for other industries.
So, what can we expect as Americans go to the polls to vote on 435 House and 33 Senate seats, 36 governorships and more than 6,600 slots in state legislatures?
Federal Elections
We live in a time when the country is as polarized as its every been. PSB research found that 75 percent of those who voted for Hillary Clinton said they do not know someone who personally voted for President Trump and vice versa.
“Democrats needs to pick up 23 seats with 25 Republican seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won. The best models give the Democrats just above an 80% chance of retaking the House of Representatives,” Boxt said.
In the U.S. Senate, 10 Democratic Senators are up for re-election in a state that President Trump won, making it extremely difficult for Democrats to gain seats, and most likely to lose at least two seats.
Governors Races
There are 36 governorships up for grabs this year with 13 held solidly by Republicans and four by Democrats. Of the remaining 19 races, National Journal reporter Madelaine Pisani highlighted the top states to flip parties as Alaska, Illinois, Michigan and Maine. Only Alaska appears to be a pick up for the Republicans.
And then there are toss ups with five very competitive races that are too tough to call in Nevada, Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa and Ohio.
State Legislative Races
As they say all politics is local and when it comes to state legislatures, more than 11,000 candidates will be vying for 6,600 seats with the number of unopposed seats dropping to 28 percent.
According to Tim Storey, director of state services for the National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL) expects a big change in the demographics of statehouses across the country. Women
Women running for state office has gone up by 30 percent over the last two years. Only 25.4 percent of state legislators are women but that will go up significantly, he said.
Currently, Republicans control 31 statehouses with the Democrats controlling 13 statehouses.
Only twice since 1902 has the President’s party gained seats in state legislatures with the average loss being 412 seats. Storey also added that the popularity of the President has three times the influence of the actual work of the legislator and there is a statistical probability that Democrats will gain more than 500 seats across state legislatures.
The most competitive legislative battleground states are:
- Alaska
- Washington
- Nevada
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- New York
- Connecticut
- New Hampshire
- Maine
“Among the 99 top legislative leaders across the US, we expect to see more than 35 turnover/change. There could be more than 2300 new state legislators after this election,” Storey added.
Without a doubt, the tech industry will be watching the elections on Nov. 6 closely this year and mapping out a strategy to make sure tech continues to grow and prosper in 2019.
